tv Trending Business Bloomberg April 12, 2015 9:00pm-11:01pm EDT
rishaad: it is a monday, the 13th of april. i am rishaad salamat. this is "trending business." ♪ rishaad: live in sydney and beijing. kongsh bets on hong reaching a record high. surging to a world beating rally. hillary and in the suspense and announcing her second attempt to become president of the united
states in a video. she promises to stick up for the middle class and everyday americans. and a sporleder alert. -- spoiler alert. "game of thrones" episodes have been leaked. we are going to want to know what you think about today's stories. follow me on twitter. #trending business. the day started in hong kong and china. in half an hour, singapore. checking in is that eckert. aiminge asian pacific last week, nothing compared to hong kong's a percent rally. we expect that continue. -- 8% rally. gains on the copy. the nikkei seeing modest selling pressure. -- gains on the kospi. recovering
moderately. we have the latest data on machine orders. we have selling pressure on the nikkei. across the region, the positive territory in wellington right now. in sydney, the asx gaming. gaining. -- n at the open.i the big data is trading numbers out of china and that will drive the markets. as we look ahead to the u.s., we will follow the dollar. at the end, the imf meetings. big focus today will be china. a big rally in hong kong, the best in the world. we will watch it carefully. rishaad: thank you. hillary clinton and in the suspense, she will seek election to the presidency in 26 team.
she will spend the next-eight weeks reaching out to people -- next 6-8 weeks reaching that the people in first early voting states. probably the worst kept secret. guest: i think so. had it benobody who true doubt about it. it is official. she is in. rishaad: what we expect from er? she had an interesting announcement video. she did a locate -- low-key on social media, she put up a video that only shows hillary clinton and really the last part of the video. most of it is ordinary people were real people saying i am getting ready. there is a gay couples saying i am getting ready to get married. african-american couples saying
we are getting ready to -- couple saying we are getting ready to have a baby. an older lady saying i am ready to retire. and then hillary clinton comes on. she is in a diner having a couple of coffee saying i am getting ready to run for president. is thisr message here is not about me, this is about you, the voters. every candidate says of that. the video, visually and every other way about the 16 different ways to say i do not think it is all about me. if i ever did, i do not believe that notion. it is about you. she says in her talking points, this is your time. i want to earn your vote which goes to the point that a lot of people think she feels this is
her and she has a feeling of entitlement. no, ie is trying to say, know i need to earn every single vote and i and prepared to hit the road. rishaad: melinda, thank you. usinda henneberger joining with the latest on hillary clinton at the she announces her decision. -- asset she announces her decision to run. -- as she announces her decision to run. you can send your thoughts to me on twitter. asiars targeted southeast for 10 years without being detected. that's according to the security company. they investigated espionage. our south east asian correspondent is on that story. has, how did the hackers managed to do this?
how did they manage to get away with it? they penetrated isolated networks not directly linked to the internet. some of the attacks were specifically across e-mails written in the local language, documents looked legitimate. the only thing is they contained a malware and suspicious software. government and companies have not been able to detect them. it has gone on for 10 years. government and businesses are not keeping with the developments in cyberattacks. they have to work with security experts. the other question is who is behind in the attacks? all indications point to the chinese government and a group. usedoftware code language to manage the attacks. all of the information they are after, government, economic,
everything was relevant to chinese national interest. the other thing is there's no real proof right now, it is not a sophisticated espionage campaign right now. rishaad: haslinda:. some of the other stories. here is shery. shery: "the game of thrones" it has been leaked hours before the much-anticipated season premiere. 4 episodes online and have been downloaded millions of times according to a tracking site. is investigating and say it may have come within a group that received approved copies. hbo sent copies to media outlets. it is one of the most pirated shows in the world. it has gained a cult following. -- filmic site is
attracting people. service became available to apple and cablevision systems. piracy has been plaguing studios in recent times, not just hbo. "any" -- "annie " was leaked ahead of time. let's talk about sharp. it dropped from a two-year high after a possible rescue. the apple supplier plans to buy a stake but was to have a say in how the company is managed. to have a say in how the company is managed. butl, the highest in japan 300 basis points down from the march 3 peak. the average cost for asian
technology companies was $106. went up lasts week. they are looking at the third annual loss. backtracked. they say possible investment could be likely is it has a say in management. and says it is keeping the door open for new infrastructure development for the u.s. despite washington's attempt to persuade other companies to snub the lender. u.s. ison said in the welcome to the kitchen to work with them. he added china has benefited greatly from contributions of by the world bank and the asian development bank. now, it is time for china to contribute more to the region. the u.s., of course, suffered a
diplomatic setback when allies including germany and australia opted to join the bank. that number of members is 46 members. beijing said they will probably be close to 60 soon. chinad: later, can arrests in the economic slide? a chief economist joins us to discuss what is on his radar. break, a third rate rise. the dollar is strong. that is coming up. ♪
great to see you. a stunning a week last week. we saw every mainland into the stocks world rally, world beating rally. tell me something, can we get more or do we have to have a bit of time where we take stock? week, a little bit of the opening of the pressure. rallied soa having significantly over the course of the past year and the opening of the floodgates a little bit and , it was viewed to the maximum gain in two days. it will continue and the virgins from china -- a divergence in china. forecastok at this
which has been a tremendous run in china, they are trading around 80 times. that is more caps in china. they are trading at 10 and 11 times. what we saw last week is likely to continue. we should see a period. rishaad: how long does a go on for? until we get between the a and h shares at a zero? i think so.: we will go for a while. first of all, what with seen from global financial markets is look atbit of -- if you the start of the bull market, it was u.s. equities and then china h and now china h.
most likely china h getting to around 16, 17 times. and then taiwanese or korean shares. but for now, up until it is shares50 times, china h have a way to run. rishaad: web seen a big rally by european stock market, does it translate to some of that money comes off the table? nader naeimi: absolutely. that is a good chance. i expect the european equities to continue to perform solidly. we are seeing really improvement and fundamentals in europe. at the same time, the first now a newmes and environment and a bit of violation gap in asian countries. trends in the the u.s. dollar, is it stabilizes or
favorown, it would also asian markets. some rotation out of europe. and asia and potentially emerging markets, it would in ibs surprise this coming quarter. -- it would not be a surprise in this coming quarter. theaad: when you talk about u.s. dollar, it has an effect on emerging markets area -- markets. tom switzer: apps -- nader naeimi: absolutely. the u.s. dollar is one of the most important drivers. quasi-tightening across the world in particular in emerging countries. and through a reduction in money supply growth with those countries. at the historical correlations all performance of emerging markets and the u.s.
dollar, you will see a negative correlation. periods of u.s. strength correspond to underperformance of emerging markets and asian shares. touching your conditions. if the u.s. dollar stabilizes, or corrects, that would be quite positive for asian and emerging markets equities. rishaad: let's go back to what you said it. any u.s.ts deflation which it goes to the centrality of your point is that it makes a mockery of tightening policy this year? : absolutely. i was so encouraged to listen to statement whenever for to the trends of the u.s. dollar in the past. employment and inflation. indirect effect of u.s. dollar strength has been an inflation.
look the correlation of u.s. dollar and inflation in u.s., a strong correlation. what it does, first of all, leads to [indiscernible] and imports deflation from the rest of the road. it goes to virgins. -- it goes divergence. the rest of the world, they have to cut rates. that divergence keeps building up. you need to sacrifice. and a reference to the strength in the u.s. dollar suggesting to fromat any further gains the u.s. dollar is likely to be self-limiting. gainse had the best of for now. rishaad: nader great to talk to you. nader naeimi there. reporter: the headlines. a germanwings flight was stopped
on the runway and search after the carrier received a bomb threat. .t was about to take off all passengers and crew got off safely. police found no signs. last month, all passengers on board of a germanwings flight were killed. militants have bombed the police station and an armored vehicle in egypt killing at least 14 people. most of the dead were police. and followers of the islamic state claimed responsibility. gunmen have opened fire on the south korean embassy in libya's capital killing a guard and civilian. the ministry said no embassy staff were injured. at least 40 rounds were fired from a machine gun.
rishaad: and look of stories making headlines. spotify could be worth $8 billion if their round of financing goes off without a hitch. people familiar says the latest round is around $400 million. it is twice from when they raised money in 2013. netflix is going with a huge stock split. they're asking investors to increase their work. $454.57 perding at share. "very seven -- 7" has topped the
american domestic box office. it is packed with stunts. it paid tribute to its founding aar, paul walker, who died in car crash in 2013 before the film was completed. staying with the media, the premier of game of thrones is underway in the u.s. but many around the world has gotten their hands on it the episode after they were leaked. millions of downloads taking place. early.r: it comes nearly half of the fifth season, 4 episodes linked. people on facebook saying i already watched all cointreau. -- all cointreau. -- all 4. it will change how hbo manages. they debuted the hbo now service
days after the season premiere which was online only subscription a you do not have to pay for the tv cable subscription to watch. it was the first time they announced they would simulcast around the world. rishaad: 170 countries. to combat was a way the piracy problem we have had. rishaad: does hbo know was behind it? predictnot necessarily they say it could be from screeners because they send copies of the episode to some people for review and translation. usually under strict restrictions on releasing. the producer talkedfu to the denver post saying it is a concernrio because of the files are watermarked and that the firm if they have deleted them but he said there were concerns that possibly it could lead to changes. rishaad: people have to go --
review them for translation like you said. more hands get their hands on it. even bank the trailer was leaked theanuary -- yvonne: trailer was leaked in january. rishaad: why hong kong want to restrict certain visitors from the chinese border. and also the market getting underway in hong kong. we have to see of last week's rally has any legs today. we love all of the numbers coming your way when "trending business" returns. ♪
rishaad: some stories trending this hour. the trading week getting way in hong kong. almost 5% higher, the biggest rally since 2011 sending the index was seven-year high. a tech security company said sophisticated hacking targeted southeast asian for a decade. they are short of laying blame e was developedd
in china. hillary clinton confirmed she is running for president with a web video saying she wants to be the champion of everyday americans. her campaign saying she will spend at the next 6-8 weeks in early voting states before her big rally in may. a look at social media. she started her candidacy differently from 80 years ago. reporter: it has been a softer rollout for clinton. basically, rather low-key with first and online video on her website talking about voters and not mentioning her four years as secretary of state or that she could do, the country's first female voters. is voters century. hillary clinton not apparent into the video until 90 seconds
into it. social media has been huge. within an hour of this digital , it was viewed more than 3 million times. twitter analytics team saying half an hour after the announcement there were 7000 tweets about clinton herself on twitter. shealy opened her twitter account in 2013 but with only 150 tweets she has more than 3 million followers. rishaad: what are people saying about -- in more detail? shery: lots of talk of our candidacy and not a big political secret. let's see where her daughter is saying. proud of you mom. we have former secretary of state madeleine albright saying clinton is smart, caring, and
determined as she will be an outstanding president. reverend jesse jackson saying -- we also have texas senator ted cruz who is running for president saying -- we will have more reaction on social media for you later. for shire. getting to the markets. the bell ringing. -- rishaad: thank you. if the market deteriorating? across are seeing gains what the focus is on on the hong kong shanghai markets. shanghai started with a nice gain. we are muted on the hang seng. it ended last week as the world's best weekly performer of nearly 8%. heading for a day of gains.
we want to focus on financials. key names to watch. watching a shares sell. what is happening with financials because that might be where you want to be today. we look at the enterprise index. one of the reasons why so many inestors are piling in here recent days. we are seeing get today. we're looking at financials a because the premium is a bargain to buy the stocks in hong kong despite -- as opposed to the counterpart. financial services extending today. which banks are rising. one of nearly 18%. the biggest gain in years. they want to improve corporate governance. they will hit the upper limit wants earned twice.
wants or twice per -- once or twice. i will send it back to you. rishaad: right, looking at trade numbers. is in beijing. what are we saying? christine: according to a study by bloomberg, economists are expecting exports to rise at 9%. overall trad balance at $14 billion. we saw a rise in a in february. duead a surplus but that is to a lot of extortions and due to the holiday. are in the numbers. most economists not expecting the 15% boost in exports in the
first two months of the year to continue. one is pmi numbers. it did beat expectations for march but by a low margin. what everite weak, expansion will be marginal. and the exchange rate, the u.s. is at the highest level in 11 years. that is pushing up commodity prices and pushing up the value of exports. course, on the one hand, china is gaining because of the lower commodity prices. on the other, it might hurt the competitive sense in the long term. a lot of factors here. a short-term indicator for now but for the long picture, we are looking at the gdp numbers for the first quarter on wednesday. rishaad: what are you economists looking for on wednesday here?
christine: well, gdp is expected to rise 7% in line with the government's target of the year. indications are that it is only going to be increasingly difficult for the government to meet that as the year goes on. borrowing costs are getting higher. labor costs are making their higher. tech rates are hurting. china is trying to free of liquidity. small and medium-size businesses. structurally, not a friendly place for small businesses. we see bad debt on the rise. that is making banks more cautious to land. which ina big rally reality might be taking money away from economic activity which will yield longer-term results. wilson consumer price hold steady. -- we have seen consumer prices hold daddy.
it will be weakened momentum. onwill get a better idea wednesday. rishaad: thank you, christine hah. also the trading data. a chinese developer has returned. woes ands -- debt corruption probe. two brothers controlled. they have to meet the deadline. china said it is keeping the door off new infrastructure open for the united states despite washington's attempt to get other countries to snug bid. allies including britain and german opted to join the bank. 46 butber of members is beijing said that will be close to 60. indian prime minister courting german investors to speed up
growth and the third-biggest economy in asia. i saying there are huge opportunities for railway and insurance. modi promised to cut the red tape for european investors. germany is their biggest trading partner in the eu. and theyk at shenzhen are trying to limit jesus. -- limit the visas. what is it down to? be limitedhey will to one trip to hong kong a week according to the news agency. and theministry government will stop issuing multiple entry permits. until now, if you are a resident you could get something of a multiple entry permit that allow you free access. shenzhen said china and adjusted
the policy from a request and china will support hong kong's development. an official had said it may come into play and it would cut from 13%. rishaad: why do they want to limit? rosalind: they have submitted a request a while ago. one of the issues trying to combat isn't the issue of parallel traders. there been several protests, parallel traders are people who, across the border because they can. they can buy necessities, shampoo, soap, baby formula and bring them back to china to resell. thele in hong kong say ability to buy these products to get sold out. and it drives prices up.
they are not happy about this parallel trading. and they learned from the government -- eling.d: anti-mainland fe we have had people say they should be welcomed. there was a very -- very big developers saying we should not biting the hand that feeds us. many rely on people from the mainland coming to buy things. sayingrning, and analyst the impact on retail sales of this moved to limit trips will probably limit -- and the impact will be limited on retail sales because most of the people will come. that will to tourists spend money on lodging, hotels, food. actually, it is a lot more than a day trip or.
shery: the figures the stories making headlines. itsey has called back minister from the vatican after pope francis said -- forey criticized the poll what it called spreading hatred and unfounded claims. the summit of the americas has wrapped up in panama after a historic meeting between u.s. and cuban presidents. castroobama and raul
shook his. castro said at the leaders had agreed to disagree when necessary. obama will make a decision soon on whether to remove cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. wonears after tiger woods his first u.s. masters, another 21-year-old have claimed at the title. jordan spieth is in control lead.hout two -- to led every round. his 18 under matched with -- woods' record. rishaad: with the global stocks topping $70 trillion,? is get can markets get any
higher? guest: the key is the chinese equity markets especially the asian market which is spilling over. me isally stands out to what i have been emphasizing to clients is it is not a fundamental move. self feeding frenzy of speculation. you have to look the numbers on new share accounts of being open in a rate of 1.5 million. more importantly, those new trading account feeding and to record gaining a margin debt. games really built on unsustainable increases in leverage. rishaad: the retail investor you are talking about here. we always talk about and this program if we have a weak housing market you do not really want to get involved.
you want to look at other opportunity. richard iley: absolutely and i think this dynamic can continue. you we saw last summer and saw there were really delivering moves by the authorities to encourage retail investors into the market through editorials, telling investors that the stocks were cheap. -- three months, self-sustaining increasingly bubble. rishaad: nearly doubling. richard iley: absolutely. the composite is up in excess of 90% since july of along. -- july alone. that is up over 60% this year alone. in china,ech stocks 220 times earnings which is
absolutely insane. on thatthe fundamentals supports. any idea of the fundamentals on wednesday, do we know? richard iley: that is the key for the region. we will go the q1 gdp and china. market expectations are for a slowdown year over year down to 7% the first quarter. a think there's a risk of weaker number. when you look at some of the data we have in hand particularly the industrial number for january and february, seven particularly weak. we know a lot of heavy coal,ries steel, shipbuilding are under pressure for overcapacity. sign that number could surprise on the downside. the fundamentals are
deteriorating. the policy stimulus of by the authorities continue to build. rishaad: even if you're getting 6.5% growth, you are still getting 6.5% growth, aren't you? at ard iley: if you look number of indicators, they are below the official number. tried to mark out a line in the sand. that's a growth target of 7%. i think it will be forced to take steps to ensure they get as close as possible. what we talked about in terms of the indonesian rate a you are not expecting much their right? richard iley: the risk will go further with the weakness counterbalancing and the need for more policy stimulus to get what is a sluggish economy going again. another focus of mine is india. we have an important release
later tonight. it comes at 8:00 hong kong time. i a benignd wish reading. rishaad: by indian standards? richard iley: the other direction. about 5%. the market is expecting 5.5%. food prices on the softer side. i think is important because the risk of a window to cut rates at least once more this cycle. he has met to do that, hasn't he not? in june. richard iley: he was on hold at the last meeting and speculation he could've moved down and he decided to wait to prove more evidence on inflation in particular. this number today if we get our forecast around fibers, it would it would bee -- 5%, supportive of a rate cuts. rishaad: how far way -- it is
crucial, a rate cut -- a rate hike i should say? they are so -- the views in the fed seem to be so divergent. richard iley: we saw that from the minutes last week. what struck me and comments from ey, thereork fed dudl said atnificant members the new york president dudley or who want to leave the option of a june hike on the table. if we do get evidence given that the month's labor numbers, the soft spot is that. the labor market is fundamentally solid. in june, aging rate hike could be rolled out completely. a move by september is still the most likely. the softness of the data will have validity.
economy ishe u.s. strong enough that we get a rate hike this year and probably september. still cannot rule out slightly earlier but the rates will be going up. the start of a steady move up. rishaad: richard, always a pleasure to have you here. richard iley. let's take a break. fans gettingnes" an early look. will they downloaded illegally? we will have media reaction to it coming up. ♪
she kicked off online ad is rather low key. that's the difference between now and 2008 when she had a presidential head. thatte the softer rollout, huge reaction on social media has an pretty interesting. of course, her account has been changed for the official account of hillary clinton is now run by staff. you will see tweets from hillary directly and that will be signed as h. 2013pened her twitter in and she has 3 million followers. she is been mentioned like crazy on social media. thetical wire saying argument for clinton in 2016 is the onlyandidate of major party not run by militants. you see a lot for and against clinton. another says -- this is the republican party, the college
republicans -- rosalind: only the democrats. we have had ted cruz as well running. onlinef thrones" leaks by insiders. lots of reaction on social media. people very excited. the official airing should be right now. club p.m. in the united states, coming to an end. this user saying -- if you want to get your binge. announcing the presidency with the season premiere, a coincidence? rishaad: what we have coming up the"trending business,'
rishaad: it is monday, the 13th of april. i am rishaad salamat and this is "trending business." we are looking at beijing, sydney, and singapore. the rallies in hong kong shares on the way up. asian equities close in on their 2008 highs. the global rally from shanghai to frankfurt pushing the value of global equities to $17 trillion. hillary announces her second
attempt to become president of the united states. she is vowing to stick up for the middle class, saying every day americans need a champion. s hit show "game of thrones" leaked just hours before the premier. let me know what you think of today's top stories. follow me on twitter. don't forget that all important hash tag. let's have a look at what is going on market wise. zeb: across the region, stocks gaining. a small decline in manila. the bigger story is china today. as we count down to the latest trade figures, they could show further weakness in the second largest economy in the world. the world beating rally in hong kong continues.
shanghai up nearly 1.6%. as we await chinese trade data, looks like hong kong exchanges are on top interns of the hang seng percentage movers. the composite is doing well. chinese stocks listed here up by more than 1%. tech stocks continue to advance and financials seeing good gains today. looks like the casinos are losers in the hong kong market. down in thetainment order of 3.4%. keep an eye on those macau gaming stocks. let's look at what is happening in the hang seng enterprises index. these are the chinese companies listed in hong kong. we see huge investor interest in these stocks, because they are more of a bargain here than they are in china. that's why we have seen this rush to get into hong kong shares. right now, we see of 1.2% advance.
you do see some selling pressure. this is not all about gains at the moment. consumer services, utilities, telecoms. the real action is in industrial socks and financials. let's look at some of the industrials that are moving. shares,tion related perhaps on optimism that the property market may be revived by the chinese government. railway stocks also among the chief movers. rishaad: getting trade numbers out of china. christine is in beijing. are seeing exports dropped unexpectedly. exports for march have dropped 14.6%. imports fell 12.3%. again, estimates were for a fall of 11.3%. worse than expected overall for march.
the trade balance was 18.6 billion yuan. we are seeing worse than expected numbers for the first quarter. exports rose 4.9%. to that 48% rise in exports in february. for the first quarter, we saw imports dropped 7.3%. we have seen chinese exports rise in the first half of the year. this month, a lot of those corrections of distortions coming in, including the chinese new year holiday. most economists did call this, saying that this pace for the first two months of the year was not sustainable, and they were expecting growth to moderate as the year goes on. obviously, perhaps not as quickly as this. we have seen weak pmi numbers. they were better than expected in march but they have been lackluster so far, very
marginally better than expectations. manufacturing remains weak. rising labor costs, difficulty in financing. helped ae hand, it has little bit in chinese exports, as demand from overseas grows. in many other ways, it also hurts in the longer term. those are the numbers for you, rish. rishaad: thank you, christine. christine hah in beijing. we will have more on that story later in the program. please tweet us your thoughts. forks expect slower growth east asian economies this year. the reason is the cool down in china. as haslinda amin joins us now with what we are facing according to the world bank. : east asia estimated to grow 6.7% this year, versus 6.9%
last year. even with the growth slowing a little bit, the region will account for a third of global growth, twice the contribution of all other developing regions. thailand, and, specific island countries are set to benefit from the oil price drop. as christine said, china dragging the developing nations down. china forecast to expand 7.1% this year. it was 7.4% last year. policymakers have been putting measures in place for more andainable growth addressing vulnerabilities in the financial system. still, there are significant risks. the weak urine economy, also the japanese economy, that would week european economy, the japanese
economy, that would weaken. we have also seen massive capital outflows. that may happen yet again. these are factors we have to keep an eye on, rish. rishaad: has, thanks for that. as haslinda amin in singapore. we will be speaking to the east asian pacific chief economist of the world bank at 11:30 hong kong-singapore time. let's have a look at some of the other stories we are covering for you. let's get started with that very anticipated announcement i hillary clinton that she is confirming she's running for president in 2016. clinton posted a web video saying she wants to be the champion of everyday americans. her campaign says she will spend the next 6-8 weeks in early voting seeds before a major rally in maine. her first stops will be in iowa,
where she came in third in the 2008 caucuses. her campaign kickoff was rather low-key. runs more than 90 seconds before clinton even makes her first appearance. analysts are saying that she is trying to downplay her celebrity and put voters first. the 2016 campaign is likely to be one of the most expensive in history. let's now turn to china. officials are saying they are keeping the door open of its new infrastructure development bank for the united states. that is despite washington's attempts to persuade other countries. the secretary-general of the secretariat for establishing the bank telling reporters earlier that the u.s. is welcome to work with them. he adds that china has benefited greatly from contributions by the world bank and the asian development bank, and now it is
time for china to contribute more to the region. the u.s. went through a diplomatic setback when allies including australia, the u.k., and germany offered to join the bank. the number of founding members is currently 46 nations. beijing says it will probably be close to 60 soon. will be on byiig all members. let's now turn to "game of thrones or co-that popular series has been leaked just hours before the much anticipated season premiere. four episodes have already been downloaded millions of times according to tracking sites. hbo is investigating the leak and says it may have come from within a group that had received approved copies. hbo sent copies to media outlets for review. "game of thrones" ranks as one of the most pirated shows. it has a cult following since it
began airing in 2011. a filming site in croatia is now attracting visitors. the leak approaches days after hbo now became available to apple and cable systems. back to you, rish. rishaad: still to come, courting germany. modi's mission. more on that story coming later in the program. after this short break, a check on china. what do the latest trade numbers say about the state of its economy? ♪
we are joined by the head of research at the lc macro. thanks for joining us. let's start things off. those trade numbers are horrible. what do they tell us about the growth figure on wednesday? numbers are much in line with our expectation. we are more bearish compared to the market expectations. our outlook for gdp growth in q1 is actually around 6.5%, if not lower. we are pretty bearish about the beginning of the growth this year. rishaad: what does that tell us about the state of the global economy, and what do the import numbers tell us about the state of consumption in china? gao: the numbers have been very much distorted by commodity prices, and the probably weaker demand from china, especially
during the first quarter of the year. also, there's a lot of chinese traveling abroad to spend money overseas that also contribute to weaker growth on the imports. the import number has been very much distorted. what is really important is export numbers. export numbers reflect the strength of chinese manufacturers. rishaad: this is it, isn't it? does it mean that the pressure is on the people's bank of china to do something via monetary policy? gao: not exactly. cut in march. normally, they will wait for another couple months for monetary policy to trickle down into the real sector. what is really on the mind of pboc is the issuance of local government bonds.
to inject more liquidity to finance the purchase of these bonds. the quota for local government bonds will be probably one half trillion. we are calling for at least twice cuts. april will be a critical month to watch. also, pboc will feel like probably more economic data to have a better assessment of the state economy. also, we are calling for the economy to stabilize. with such a modest recovery in q3, as previous stimulus matters kick in, it takes time. ,he recovery will be very slow gradual, and modest. rishaad: this is what everybody is hoping. we have a soft landing and everything is fine. there are concerns, as you just
mentioned the municipal bond offerings, that they are not handled correctly and could be a disaster. gao: absolutely. it depends on how fast the local governments issue on this magnitude. ,f local governments are rushed or even the issuance process that poorly managed, this could crash the interest rates. just generate another interest back like what we have seen back to 2013. that could potentially jeopardize the current stock rally. so this is critical for us to watch. what is your biggest fear looking ahead when it comes to the chinese economy? gao: ironically, we are not so much concerned with the property market. we think the recent relaxation
of purchase restrictions will help boost growth in property markets. stabilizebly will within 6-7 months. but our biggest concern is issuance of local government bonds. we actually don't know how beijing will handle the pace of issuance. that could lead to interest rate spikes. another concern we have is the chinese labor market. we have our own employment survey in china. we saw someugh easing of tensions from labor markets, probably more migrant workers decided to stay home farming. that normally would have the 2008during financial crisis.
when workers went home for the chinese new year, they just stayed home because they couldn't find jobs. another concern we have is the currency. the growth now looks like pretty gloomy in q1. politicalhe continuation for women be to become a reserve -- for renmi nbi to become a reserve currency could stabilize growth. we think beijing should consider to depreciate its currency. rishaad: great talking to you, thank you very much indeed. these are the stories making headlines around the world. turkey has recalled its ambassador to the vatican after the killing of armenians was called the first genocide of the 21st century. historians estimate that up to 1.5 million armenians were killed by ottoman turks around
the time of world war i. a germanwings plane was stopped on the runway and searched on sunday after the carrier received a bomb threat. the plane was to about to take off for milan. police found no signs of explosives. last month, all 150 people on board a germanwings flight died after it crashed in france in what investigators believe was suicide by copilot andreas lubitz. the summit of the americas has wrapped up in panama after a historic meeting between the u.s. and cuban president. barack obama and raul castro shook hands during the first such talks in 60 years. obama will make a decision soon on whether to remove cuba's designation as a state sponsored terrorism. rishaad: next, she describes herself online as a hair icon,
the apple watch has had its first weekend with a muted response compared with past product launches. smaller than usual market launch around the world with just 14 people lining up outside apple's beijing store. strong online preorders saw estimated deliveries stretching into july. the watch of goes on sale on the 24th of april. bloomberg spoke to several customers after getting their hands on the device. here are their reactions. >> very easy to use. >> i was impressed. it felt great on my wrist. >> not too big, not too small. >> i'm a big apple fan. i like good-looking, functional products. >> i don't want to have to pull
out my phone for everything. expect that is have the newest and latest. if i don't have it, they will look at me and be disappointed. >> i don't think i need one. >> i'd say it is a major want, not a need. >> probably not, but i'm going to get it. >> it may be obsolete in a year, but then i'll buy another one. >> i think it'll be a success. the low price watches will be a success. >> i think it remains to be seen. >> i don't think it'll be there most successful product, but it will be up there. we are going to turn to what is trending on social media. shery: thanks, rich.
let me get started with hillary clinton. that much-anticipated announcement that she's running for president in 2016. not quite surprising. still, the social media reaction has been huge. one hour after she announced her candidacy, people have been tweeting hillary clinton's post to announce her presidency. that tweet has been viewed more than 3 million times. half an hour after the announcement, you have 7000 tweets talking about clinton herself. a lot of reaction positive and negative. one person coloring -- calling hillary clinton a horrible liar. one person saying, they all lie. another person, a discussion on gender lines. very sexist comment here, saying a real man cannot vote for hillary clinton. -- we have a response to that saying, that is
the intellect of the gop. this person, not very happy with the republican party. this is the reaction on going after hillary clinton announced her candidacy that she's running for president in 2016. rosalind: there's a lot of buzz around "game of thrones." this is the trailer. aboutt began airing maybe 20 minutes ago. lots of people watched that, but also lots of reaction online. the first four episodes of the season, nearly half the season, leaked online before it launched around the world. it, "thatn watching is the best part" -- that is only the intro. people have been counting down to this. shery: you were pretty excited as well. rosalind: i have been following it. -- i have to wait a
month for new episodes. finally, a little bit of a cynic, this one. it is all just part of the marketing. shery: there you have it, "game of thrones" out already. that was a look at what is trending on social media now. don't forget, if you use twitter, it is easy to stay in touch with us on "trending business." next, going to get bid to hillary clinton's enter the white house. that is when "trending business" returns. ♪
rishaad: top stories this hour, china has got the goods but no one to sell them to. .xports slumping last month shipments down almost 15% in march from a year ago. analysts were looking for a rise of more than 8%. a technology security company saying a sophisticated hacking group has been talking -- targeting government corporations in southeast asia for a decade.
tosays the software used manage the attacks was developed in china. hillary clinton confirming she's running for president with a web video saying she wants to be the champion for everyday americans. she will spend the next 6-8 weeks in early voting states before a major rally in may. let's look at the trading day. zeb: let's look at how the hong kong and china markets are doing. exports slumping last month after they came in short of what economists were expecting. shipments falling 14.6%, that is exports. economists were looking for a gain of 8.2%. the regional benchmark is declining at the moment. don't be full by this for us we are seeing -- this froth we are seeing in the hong kong and china markets. the shanghai composite still up over 1% tonight. the hang seng beating that rally
from last week. tradingergy, and related stocks are doing well. brokerages and financials are up on the hong kong exchange, where the bulk of this action is taking place. kunlun energy and lenovo leading the tech space. the movers to the downside today, galaxy entertainment falling. curious move in those shares. we have the latest numbers from the bank of japan. bank of japan members believing that the economy will continue a moderate pace of recovery. nevertheless, the nikkei seeing some pressure today. we are seeing shares coming up. the topix index has the biggest weekly advance in seven. you are seeing insurers as well as utilities in tokyo declining at this moment. we will keep an eye on it.
the regional benchmark down by 0.3%. rishaad: let's get back to our top story. china's latest trade figures, march exports way below expectations. christine is in beijing with the details. what is going on here? christine: just to tell you how much it fell from march, 14.6% year on year. 8.2% rise.re for an that is a big fall. markets imports slipped. the customs bureau has said that is mostly due to lower commodity prices. nothing fundamental. 8.2 billion yuan against estimates for a $40 billion surplus. that is a huge difference. 4.9%.quarter exports were
that brings the first quarter yuan.s to 755.5 billion china customs is saying the march export drop is due to the chiming of the -- the timing of the chinese new year holiday this year. headlines still coming in, saying that international market demand is weak, export orders are falling, and only the u.s. market is doing well for china at the moment. this shows the underlying weakness in the manufacturing sector. the customs officials said exporters are losing orders. a lot of cuts from all sides are rising. on the exchange side, labor costs and financial costs all hurting trade. pmiave been seeing weak numbers overall despite coming slightly above estimates in march.
demand in southeast asia and the u.s. are getting better, but we still have eurozone weakness and japanese weakness. christine, what does it tell us about the gdp numbers? that really leads up to that, for the month and for the quarter. it does tell us that, kind of anything goes. numberd expect to see a vastly different from what we are looking for. right now, economists are expecting a 7% rise in first-quarter gdp, in line with the government target of 7% for the year. it is going to get difficult to meet that target as the year goes on. we have higher borrowing costs, righsing labor costs. china is restructuring, trying to move away to a more
consumption-led economy. but it is going to be a long and difficult process. it cannot afford for growth to fall too much. rishaad: christine, thank you very much indeed. ending thenton suspense, announcing she will be seeking election to the white house in 2016. she will spend the next 6-8 weeks reaching out to people in early voting states, places like iowa. for more, here is bloomberg news politics reporter, melinda tele berger. we were discussing this and i think we were all flummoxed by the lack of surprise out there. melinda: well i think that it has been a couple of years, among people who follow politics globally, that anyone has any real question about whether she would get in or wanted to run.
i think it had just been a question of timing for a long time. rishaad: what happens next? she's reaching out to the everyday american, as it were. you would expect her to do that. melinda: i think the difference between now and the last time she ran for president in 2008 is that she's going to be reaching out in smaller states, at least initially. out with ashe came lot of big speeches, big rallies. this time, she wants to have a slow start and really be speaking in people's living rooms, rather than in big venues. really just one on a very few people to get things kind of, i think to send a message that she is not expecting -- she knows
that she has to earn every single vote. she's not taking anything for granted. she is small and building her way up. rishaad: melinda, thank you very much indeed. melinda henneberger joining us from washington. get more on that story anytime, anywhere. add the bloomberg plus app to your tablet or mobile. some of thein on other stories we are following today. spotify could be worth a if itsg $8 billion latest round of financing goes without a hitch. setle say the latest round it at about $4 billion. netflix is looking to make shares more attractive to average investors. they are going to do that by a huge stock split. the company asked investors to approve a share increase.
the company currently trades at right about $854 a share. the split would make it more accessible to the retail investors. trying to toughen the u.s. domestic box office. it collected $60.6 million for comcast. longestbeating the ride, the newest release from 21st century fox. torious 7" also pays tribute paul walker, who died before the feature was completed. the much-anticipated fifth season of "game of thrones" just wrapped up in the u.s. even before hit hit tv screens, many viewers got to see new episodes after they were leaked onto filesharing sites. roger harvey is the director of an online security firm and he
joins us live from sydney. what did you find? roger: good morning. it is an interesting trend. we did some comparison between this year and last year. total number of illegal downloads of "game of thrones" leading up to the release of the previous season in 2014. that was around 4.9 million illegal downloads. yeard the same survey this for the eight weeks preceding the launch. that number had gone to 7 million illegal downloads. about a 45% increase in illegal peer-to-peer file downloads traffic. there's a pretty strong trend, you would have to say. it is a topic very much in demand by pirates. ask, whatou've got to
volume of downloads do you ?xpect for this latest season this is the first four episodes of season five. it is difficult to predict. the numbers can go very high once it is out on the internet. it is very difficult to manage that, when it leaks prior to the launch date. not much i can say about that. once it is on the internet, there are things you can do to manage it. it will be interesting to see where it goes from here. rishaad: sometimes, there are companies out there who deliberately leak a certain number of episodes and say, "oops, that was bad of us to do that." there must be a dividing line
when you know whether it has been done for publicity and whether it is a genuine mistake. would find that very hard to believe in this case. i can give you another example. year, wemy awards this started monitoring the illegal traffic from january 1. they announced a short list of awardees around january 14. we saw a 395% increase in illegal downloading as a result of that. if you add up the number of illegal downloads that we saw and do a simple calculation, you will get to about $40 million in lost revenues just because of the nominations for the academy awards. six films,e top those categories. that is a lot of revenue going out of an industry.
it is certainly, i don't think, sustainable. there are many ways this can be combated. i think we are at the beginning of something that has a long way to go. rishaad: you think this is something which is going to get worse before it could get better for these film studios and tv studios? roger: potentially, it can. there's three things you need to do. you need to get good technology about where piracy is happening. piracy is not a single behavior. you've got people who are genuinely downloading in the belief that they are doing everything perfectly legal. they don't know that they are potentially breaking a copyright law. at the other end, you've got large-scale ditch tradition -- distribution. you got everything in the middle, occasional hackers, occasional pirates, people who
receive films on a usb memory stick. to do is get the business intelligence that says, this is where my content is going. actionat, you can take to take down links in things like search engines, where you can remove the links and start to make it harder to find that content on the internet. i think the thing that is developing quickly is, what happens then. there is an industry code of conduct that has been developed. you might have seen the "dallas buyers club" case where isp's are being asked to diebold the ip addresses that have been identified by the studio who own the content. i think this is early days. there is a lot happening. the piracy on the internet is a little like a tidal wave. you can't actually directly
shery: welcome back. militants have bombed a police station and an armored vehicle in egypt's sinai region, killing at least 14 people. most of the dead were egyptian police. a group that declared allegiance to the islamic state claimed responsibility. violence has increased in sinai since president mohamed morsi was removed from office. gunmen have opened fire on the south korean embassy in lydia's
capital killing a local guard and a civilian. the cover he and foreign ministry says that no embassy staff were injured. at least 40 rounds were fired from a machine gun before the attackers fled. supporters of islamic state said they were behind the attack. china says it is keeping the door open for new infrastructure development. despite washington's attempts to persuade other countries, the number of founding members is currently at 46 nations. beijing says it will be close to 60 soon. rishaad: china has put a limit on the number of trips residents of the city of shenzhen can make to hong kong. >> the permit would allow them basically unrestricted access area from today, the chinese government is going to stop issuing new permits. rishaad: so will the old ones
work? haslinda: i believe so. about 14 million people hold these multiple entry permits. the ones who still have them can go in and out. but there will be no new ones issued according to a chinese agency. policydjusted the according to a request from hong kong. they are saying that adjusting the enforcements showed government consideration for hong kong livelihood. 47 million tourists from china last year, of which 60% were daytrippers. a lot of these, across the border frequently. hong kong officials did say this move will cut arrivals by 4.6 million visits a year. the campaign to attract tourists may impact hong kong's
economy, especially hong kong's retail sales. a cosmetics retailer has seen a hit in their shares this morning. a jewelry seller as well. they are worried that fewer people coming to spend money in hong kong will impact the economy. rishaad: thank you very much indeed. up next, ken modi change the investment landscape in india? we will hear from one of the country's top billionaires. an exclusive interview coming your way when "trending business " returns. ♪
his strengthening of investment ties. he and guy johnson spoke about the direction that india is heading in. >> mr. modi's government has definitely changed the face of india. he has a good vision. he is moving in the right direction. but we should not expect things to happen overnight. it is going to take time. we have to have patience. we are running at 7.4 gdp. it may improve. but as i told you, i like to analyze things. is it all because of modi's government? no. down.ude prices have gone
the inflation has come down. when early involvement was there, inflation had gone out of control, there was no implementation, no decision-making, the government had become a lame-duck. government has picked up all the weak points, and with this absolute majority and the good intentions and the vision that mr. modi has, he has created a good environment for investment. so everyone is running. wanted government, they -- [indiscernible] now, each and every leader in the world wants to work with
india. i want to other india. if they lose this opportunity, and if they are not ready at home, this opportunity will be lost. rishaad: we are going to check in now with what is trending today. shery: the top trending topic today, not surprising, hillary clinton's announcement that she will run for president in 2016. she announced of this after a low-key rollout of her presidential campaign. the reaction on social media was huge. within an hour, her campaign presence launched a tweet that had been viewed 3 million times. half an hour after the announcement, 7000 tweets about clinton per minute. one person saying the argument for clinton in 2016 is that she's a candidate for the only major party not run by lunatics.
comments have come from prominent figures as well, such as madeleine albright, saying that she is smart, caring, and determined. tedlso have texas senator cruz, who is also running for president, saying that a vote for hillary clinton is a vote for eight more years of obama. another topic trending today, "game of thrones" the popular series by hbo, being leaked online before its much-anticipated premiere. four episodes appeared online, viewed by more than a million people. some people tweeting about that, saying, is this a coincidence that hillary clinton announced thrones"nd "game of kicks off tonight? that was just announced a few minutes ago. back to you, rish. rishaad: thank you very much. that is it for this monday
rishaad: it is the middle of the asian trading day. this is "asia edge." a look at our top stories this hour. china's exports surprise, an unexpected fall in shipments could push beijing towards joining the currency wars. when china sneezes, its neighbors catch a cold. and, a monday hangover. asian shares break their longest
winning streak in a year. angie: i'm angie lau. also coming up, in the race. hillary clinton releases of video confirming she is taking a second tilt at the white house. whodunit? a massive hacking campaign is revealed, targeting southeast asian governments and businesses. and, losing the plot. almost half the new season of "game of thrones" leaks online, meaning millions of illegal downloads. all that and more in this edition of "asia edge." exports way below expectations. christine is in beijing with the details. we were expecting growth of 8%. instead, we got this shock double-digit, near 15% contraction. march exports fell 15%.